The Stability of Ideological Attachments Beyond Liberal and Conservative


Shambaugh Memorial Conference
Sep 2026

Andrew Trexler
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Christopher Johnston
Duke University

The 7-Point Scale


Where would you place yourself on this scale?

  1. Very liberal
  2. Liberal
  3. Somewhat liberal
  4. Middle of the road
  5. Somewhat conservative
  6. Conservative
  7. Very conservative

Known Issues


  • Many struggle to place themselves on this scale
  • Economic versus social dimensions
  • Policy preferences versus social identity
  • Roughly 1 in 4 select the middle category
  • Not clear that their attitudes are actually moderate

Trexler and Johnston (2025)

Trexler and Johnston (2025)


Which of the following describes your beliefs and attitudes? Please check all that apply.

  • Liberal
  • Progressive
  • Green
  • Environmentalist
  • Socialist
  • Communist
  • Cosmopolitan
  • Conservative
  • Traditional
  • Libertarian
  • Nationalist
  • Populist
  • Fascist
  • Communitarian

Trexler and Johnston (2025)

Extensions

  • 2024 Cooperative Election Study
    • Pre/post election panel design to test stability
    • Test relationships with pre/post election attitudes
  • 2019 Views of the Electorate Study
    • Identification with 19 items
    • Gradation: “Not well at all” \(\rightarrow\) “Extremely well”
  • CampaignView
    • Use of ideological language on candidate websites
    • Early stage!

Results

Pre-election Identification

Pre-election Most Important Identities

Probability of Re-selection

Identification Flows

Identification Flows

Predictive Power

2019 VOTER Survey

CampaignView

Takeaways


  • Broad heterogeneity in ideological attachments in the mass public
  • Attachments to unconventional labels reflect credible attitudes
  • Moderately stable over time
  • Surprising divergence from incidence in elite rhetoric


Thank you!


Andrew Trexler
University of Wisconsin-Madison
atrexler.com

Christopher Johnston
Duke University
sites.duke.edu/chrisjohnston